The Presidential Election: The Opinion Polls On Last Weekend.

We are entering the final stretch of the Presidential Election Campaign. Voters go to the “real” polls on Thursday but two opinion polls for Red C and Sunday Business Post make interesting reading. I have taken the average below.

Seán Gallagher (Independent)………….39% (personally this looks high)

Michael D Higgins (Labour)………………26%

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin)…………15%

David Norris (Independent)…………………8%

Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael)…………………….7%

Dana Rosemary Scallon (Independent) <3%

Mary Davis (Independent)…………………..<3%

then with all the caveats, we can take out the bottom two…….and re-distribute maybe 4…….that should add no more than 1 to Higgins.
Mitchell going out leaves maybe 5 to play for. McGuinness will hardly benefit. Norris minimally.
Higgins might break 3:1 ahead of Gallagher.

Norris going out will put around 7 back in play again breaking mostly for Higgins.
With three left in the race, it is unlikely that Higgins will have closed the gap. And that Gallagher will be about 4 to 5 ahead. Possibly more.

McGuinness will go out on say 19. with maybe Gallagher leading Higgins by 5, 6 or 7. And not all SFs vote transferrable.
It seems that theres no way that Higgins can win without taking the lions share of the SF transfers.

The Republicans as Kingmakers, if you see what I mean.
Not the scenario that the Media in Dublin 4 want.
Sinn Féins vote has a socialist component. And a nationalist component.
And the weird thing about second preference votes is that they cannot (realistically) be mandated. The voters can be a contrary lot. And no Party ever really thanks another Party for getting that all important #2.

Which means the Media this week……and liberal commentators might be just a little nicer to Mr McGuinness.
McGuinness on these figures wont win.
But either possible result will be a source of amusement in Sinn Fein HQ.
Of course Sinn Féin wont get any credit from its liberal enemies if Higgins wins on SFs coat tails.
That result merely puts a wry smile on SF lips.
But Dublin 4 choking on their breakfast muesli if SF “cost” Higgins the election……now thats a belly laugh.

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