So the Referendum on Fiscal Stability/Austerity was passed 60:40.
There are, I suppose reasonable arguments to be made FOR the Treaty. And I suppose reasonable arguments to be made against the Treaty. Long Live Reason.
Yet it strikes me that people did not vote Yes or No “reasonably”. I suspect most Yes voters were motivated by Fear. I suspect most No voters were motivated by Pig-Headedness.
It seems there is a disconnect between the “established parties” and the voters. With 85% of the nations politicians urging a Yes vote, it is maybe surprising that 40% of voters voted against. The No Campaign was led by Leftists and Sinn Féin. Opinion Polls suggest that SF is the second most popular party in the Republic.
It would be reasonable to assume that Labour Party could not persuade many of its own voters and will likely lose ground to those who campaigned for a No vote. Likewise Fiann Fáil is vulnerable. Sinn Fein is clearly strengthened by the Referendum. Six months ago the Presidential Election was, at best, an adequate result for Sinn Féin but the Referendum has left them the leading voice of Opposition.