As the polls close in Mid Ulster, a few comments.
Iit should be a comfortable win for Sinn Fein. The emergence of a single unionist candidate sealed Francie Molloys victory as “comfortable” as however unlikely a unionist victory, it hgal rallied nationalist votes around him.
Patsy McGlone will poll well but not in any way a spectacularly. By common consents, he was the best candidate.
Alliance will not be happy with anything les that 5% of the votes which they will hail as a breakthru. I note that Mick Fealty on Slugger O’Toole was claiming that anything “north of 1%” would be a good resulbut th the absence of a UUP candidate and a sympathy vote for the Flegs issue should mean they poll well. Hard to know if Mick was writing as an analyst or helping Alliance manage expectations.
Had this bye election taken place in Upper Bann or East Derry, it might have told us more about Alliance standing.