North Belfast comprises the Oldpark DEA, Castle DEA as well as part of Court DEA and some areas from Glengormley, which are actually in the Antrim-Newtownabbey DEA.
The Westminster MP is Nigel Dodds (DUP).
The six MLAs…three DUP, two Sinn Fein and one SDLP.
SF 3. SDLP 1. DUP 1. PUP 1.
SF 1. SDLP 1. Alliance 1. DUP 2. UUP 1.
Court (partly in West Belfast)
SF 2. DUP 2. PUP 1. TUV 1.
Sinn Fein have been spinning for years that this is a winnable Westminster seat. But that would require a total collapse of SDLP as well as a divided unionist vote.
The indications are that SDLP are under some threat locally but Sinn Fein seem under pressure as republican dissidents polled well without getting a seat.
I suspect there will be a single unionist candidate…as there will be deals done between DUP and UUP (who badly need a Westminster seat) to maximise the unionist vote.
Nichola Mallon, from Oldpark is likely to benefit from a high profile as incoming Mayor of Belfast…its SDLPs “turn” to hold the Office and Nichola will be the first nationalist woman to hold the post.
Although Alliance have council representation in Newtownabbey, they will be delighted to pick up their first seat in North Belfast (proper) for the first time in over a decade.
I would certainly expect that Nichola will be co-opted into the Assembly. I would expect Alban Magennis to stand down after April 2015.