Westminster Election 2015: West Belfast

The Results:

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An easy win for for Paul Maskey. The big talking point was that Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit comfortably beat Alex Attwod for second place.

Certainly Sinn Féin dominance of West Belfast at Stormont level looks in danger. They currently hold five seats and SDLP one seat. Clearly, Carroll is capable of taking an Assembly seat. Whether this is at the expense of Sinn Féin (more likely) or SDLP (less likely) is a genuine debate.

I think the combined total of PBP, Alliance and Workers Party transfers should make SDLP safe.

My best guess is three Sinn Féin, one PBP….and two seats to go to Sinn Féin, SDLP or DUP.

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