A win for David Simpson. This is a seat that UUP want “back”. Simpson and DUP took the seat in a bitter contrst with David Trimble in 2005.
Sinn Féin built their entire campaign around Demographics and claiming that Cat Seeley could come thru the middle between Simpson and Jo Anne Dobson (UUP). But even on polling day, Sinn Féin had given up and looked deflated. They had not made enough inroads into SDLP vote, had had a bad time on the doorsteps over “welfare” and it was known that wavering unionists were rallying round Simpson.
No real change for 2016. Two DUP. Two UUP and at least one Sinn Féin. Is Dolores Kelly in danger of losing the second nationalist seat? Well it would be foolish to be complacent but there is an Apathy factor, some expected slippage to Sinn Féin and the availability of transfers from minor parties.