Just for the craic.
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker, unopposed)…..1
The other 157 seats.
Fine Gael 52….Labour 10……(outgoing Govt wont reach the numbers to continue). Very bad day for Labour and blood on the carpet in TV studios)
Fiann Fail…..33ish…..largely forgiven by electorate. Back in the game as Official Opposition.
Sinn Féin….24 (not the breakthru they wanted but they will manage expectations and proclaim themselves the credible left wing Opposition. But ultimately they are too toxic in the South. The 2016 result will be better than 2011 but this is the high tide.
that will leave around 38 Others. A high tide for them also as any early election will force most back to a “Party”. And a mixture from Social Democrats (up to 5) and assorted “far left” (7 or 8) but onltthe SDs can realistically be courted by outgoing government.The SocialDemocrats might be the kingmakers but I cant see a crushed Labour wanting to be part of a coalition again.
throw in the Shane Ross types (they will do better than Renua, who I think might be wiped out) but I cant see them formally agreeing to any formal coalition.
Gene-pool Fianna Fáil will take seats and of course genuine Independents….but as I see it most likely the same outcome as everyone else sees it….a hung Dáil, a minority Fine Gael government and a new election within two years.
If Iam wrong, I will be in good company. The last seats in every constituency will be dramatic.