Profile: North Down

Candidates:
DUP: Peter Weir. Alex Easton. Gordon Dunne.
UUP: Alan Chambers. Chris Eisenstadt. Carl McClean.
Alliance: Stephen Farry. Andrew Muir.
Green: Steven Agnew.
TUV: John Brennan.
UKIP: Bill Piper.
SDLP: Conal Browne.
Sinn Féin: Therese McCartney.
Labour Rep Committee: Maria Lourenco.
Conservative: Frank Shivers.
Independent: Brian Wilson.

North Down is unique. Socially liberal and with a lot of well-off people and a quirky hippy element, it seems almost semi-detached from the rest of Norn Iron. A place that in 2011 can send three DUP MLAs to Stormont on over 40% of the vote and in 2015 send liberal minded Sylvia Hermon to Westminster with 50% of the vote.
An Assembly election in North Down is marked by apathy. fewer than half of those eligible actually bother to vote. So I expect the quota to be very low.
Those who did vote returned three DUP, one UUP, one Alliance and one Green.

I expect the DUP vote share to go down, UUP to go up. Somehow Peter Weir, the best known of the DUP runners and who was previously in UUP has never really stood out in the Assembly.
Alan Chambers, usually a high scoring Independent is the only name I know in the UUP trio but I think that Chris Eisenstadt has appeared on Slugger O’Toole. If I recall correctly he is an American and sounds like another of Nesbitt’s head-hunting trophies.
Alliance are hoping for a gain here in what used to be a good constituency for them but they have not actually held two seats here since the Good Friday Agreement, frustrated by (once )Womens Coalition and (latterly) Green. Although Stephen Farry is the front runner here, Andrew Muir has been loitering with intent for years.
Steven Agnew is probably safe but his first preference vote is not usually good.
SDLP are making an effort. Conal Browne is the Chair of SDLP Youth There might be a target of (say) 1,000 votes which would be a good result. For Sinn Féin 500 votes would be good.

Prediction….DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1 and Green 1…..the sixth seat Alliance or DUP.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Profile: North Down

  1. Vince says:

    I think that Steven Agnew is very safe here. There should be 4 Unionist seats (if one excludes Alliance from that definition) – so that last seat will come down to either a 3rd DUP (relatively strong ticket for them) or a 2nd for UUP.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s