Profile: East Derry

Candidates:
DUP: Adrian McQuillan. George Robinson. Maurice Bradley.
UUP: William McCandless.Aaron Callan.
Ind Unionist: Claire Sugden.
Alliance: Yvonne Boyle.
PUP: Russell Watton.
TUV: Jordan Armstrong.
UKIP: Steven Parkhill.
Conservative: David Harding. Stuart Canning.
Green: Amber Hamill.
SDLP: Gerry Mullan.
Sinn Féin: Caoimhe Archibald. Cathal Óhoisin.
Independent: Tom Christie.

The story of 2011 was the de-selection of David McClarty by UUP and McClarty getting elected as an Independent. Neither of the selected UUP candidates was elected.
This allowed DUP to dominate the unionist vote. Gregory Campbell (now confined to Westminster), Adrian McQuillan and George Robinson were elected.
The pro-union vote was split…DUP 37%, McClarty 9% ,UUP 8%, TUV 5%.
The nationalist vote was SF 21% (1 seat for Ó hOisín) and SDLP 15% (1 seat).
Alliance scored 6%.

With big hitter Campbell out of the field, DUP can only be assured of two seats. McClarty died during the Assembly term and Claire Sugden was co-opted in his place. She is standing this time. She maybe made a mistake in not standing for Westminster as it let UUP recover and the evidence suggests there is a UUP quota. But this time around I think William McCandless and Claire Sugden are vying for the same quota.
Sinn Féin are safe for one quota and although SDLP Vote share dropped between 2011 and 2015, Gerry Mullan should retain the SDLP seat (John Dallat is stepping down from Assembly).
Ironically David Harding, a UUP candidate in 2011 is now standing as a Tory.

East Derry is one of those seats where Demographic changes will mean that a unionist seat will go nationalist but 2016 may not be the year and it is only safe to call five seats….
DUP 2, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1…..
The sixth seat will be decided on DUP and SF surplus as well as TUV, Tory and Alliance eliminations.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Profile: East Derry

  1. Vince says:

    I think the final seat will go to Ms Sugden with the help of healthy transfers from Alliance and Greens. The others look as you say.

  2. Sinn Féin Supporter in Tyrone says:

    This is a seat where SF are targeting a second, with John Dallat standing down his large personal vote will be seeking a new home.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s