Profile: South Belfast

Candidates:
SDLP: Fearghal McKinney. Claire Hanna.
Sinn Féin: Máirtín Ó Muilleoir.
UUP: Rodney McCune.
Alliance: Duncan Morrow. Paula Bradshaw.
DUP: Emma Pengelly. Christopher Stalford.
UKIP: Bob Stoker.
Green: Claire Bailey.
PUP: Ian Shanks
TUV: John Hiddleston.
Conservative: Ben Manton.
Workers Party: Lily Kerr.
Labour Rep: Brigitte Anton.
Labour ((kinda) : Sean Burns.
Ind Unionist: Billy Dickson.
Ind Unionist: Ruth Patterson.

South Belfast …currently six MLAs from the five main parties. SDLP currently has the sixth seat. It still looks like all six parties have one quota each. The sixth seat will be decided by transfers from minor parties and running mates.
UUP (represented by Rodney McCune as Michael McGimpsey is retiring) and Sinn Féin with outgoing MLA Máirtín ÓMuilleoir) are only fielding one candidate.
SDLP are represented by outgoing MLAs Claire Hanna and Fearghal McKinney. The general feeling is that Fearghal is the more vulnerable.
Recent co-option Emma Pengelly and Cllr Christopher Stalford represent DUP. Ms Pengelly is a former Special Advisor and I have a feeling that DUP voters might prefer Stalford who has a solid record of representing them on Belfast City Council for thirteen years.
Alliance also have two candidates, Paula Bradshaw (a defection from UUP in late 2011) and Duncan Morrow who is from a well-known Alliance family. Ms Bradshaw ran well in Westminster last year…but I suspect most Alliance rank and file would prefer Duncan.
Of the other candidates, Claire Bailey, Deputy Leader of the Green Party has the best chance.

Prediction….SDLP 2, Sinn Féin 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1.

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One Response to Profile: South Belfast

  1. Vince says:

    I think that the SDLP vote share will hold up well here – the challenge for them is not overbalancing in favour of Hanna. Ideally (and it won’t happen) she should be behind McKinney on the 1st count. Perversely, if they had run McKinney 1, Hanna 2 all over the constituency then it probably would have worked well. SDLP voters should consider this with the ballot paper in hand.

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