Last week on SKY News, I saw an item which indicated that the Remain vote in Scotland, Wale, Norn Iron…and London would be more than 60per cent…but the Remain vote in “middle England” will be much closer.
London is atypical of England.
There is a possibility that nationalists in Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron could actually swing the vote. It is unlikely that “middle England” will take it well. Likewise if the “UK” as a whole votes to leave, then it will not go down well outside England.
Effectively there are two Referendums. There is the vote taking place in the “UK” (England, Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron) and there is the vote taking place within Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron.
I suggest that these are two different dynamics. What is good for (say) Norn Iron is not necessarily good for the “UK”.
At the weekend, I completed a Lucid Talk survey. For the record, I declared that I would be voting LEAVE. This may not be good for Norn Iron or Ireland. But while I “get” that progressive nationalists should make Norn Iron work, I dont feel any obligation to make the “UK” work. I should add that the six adults in my family are committed or leaning to a LEAVE vote.
Effectively I have two votes in this Referendum and that is how I intend to play it. I dont think my LEAVE vote will influence the Norn Iron result…where the balance of probability indicates most will vote REMAIN.
But that single visit to the polling station on 23rd June means that my vote will be counted twice….and it might just influence things when the “UK” vote is counted.
I do not feel any obligation to take the Referendum seriously…in the sense of weighing up my economic interests (REMAIN) against my animosity to David Cameron, Tony B Liar and Peter Mandelson. Likewise I dont want to weigh up my antagonism to the European Union with the unlovely leaders of the LEAVE campaign (Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey).
Some will say this is an irresponsible approach. But I cannot imagine anything more irresponsible than Cameron promising a Referendum merely to halt the growth of UKIP and deal with Eurosceptics in his Conservative Party. I wont play ball…and I am not thrilled to see the British Labour Party bail out a Tory Government.
The Debate is already degraded beyond the point of Reason where we should listen to the two sides and reach some kinda decision.
This is not to say that I am not taking the Referendum seriously. I am taking it all very seriously. At 10pm on 23rd June, three News channels will report the exit polls.
If you could close your eyes now and imagine the announcement…
“Britain has voted overwhelmingly to remain in European Union”…”Britain is thrown into chaos as polls suggest a majority of people want to leave the EU”…..”Too close to call as England votes to leave EU but rest of UK votes to stay”…..”Constitutional Crisis and even the Government might fall”.
Lets be clear. This Referendum is an opportunity. It is not a single issue. Your agenda might well be different from mine but take the opportunity to maximise YOUR agenda.