For the record, I would like to clarify that I have no connexion to the “poultry industry”. I am an occasional visitor to KFC.
For me it will be most interesting to see if voters register significant unhappiness by switching party more than in 2016. A hard one to predict! As you say this is not a “demographic” factor and hence it is just not knowable. I don’t really trust Lucid Talk polls but they have shown some unease in the public mind at least.
I think that turn out will be low
SF are trying to motivate people with “dont get mad, get even”.
The most disillousioned…nationalists in 2016 will be the lowest turnout.
Alliance are pretty well motivated but SDLP voters are maybe least motivated.
As to opinion polls.
Consider this …if one hundred people are asked “do you wash your hands after using the bathroom”, almost all will say “yes” but any health professional will say it is much lower.
Lucid Talk and any polling company is limited by questions asked, the choice of the sample and most of all by what people answer.
Alliance always does better in opinion polls than in actual elections.
Sad news: Martin McGuinness has retired.
We can only wish him well.
SInn Féin will of course use it.
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