Assembly Election 2017: East Antrim

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….East Antrim
May 2016: Quota: 4630
DUP (3 seats) 11701
UUP (1 seat) 6550
Alliance (1 seat ) 4747
Sinn Féin (1 seat) 2633
Others: TUV 1643, SDLP 1229, Green 693, Some Kinda Labour 551, PUP 455.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: David Hilditch, Gordon Lyons, Stephen Ross.
Hilditch and Lyons are outgoing. Ross replaces his brother.
UUP: Roy Beggs, John Stewart.
Beggs is outgoing. Stewart stood last year.
Alliance: Stewart Dickson, Danny Donnelly.
Stewart is outgoing. Donnelly stood last year.
Sinn Féin: Oliver McMullan
Outgoing.
SDLP: Margaret Anne McKillop.
Stood last year.
TUV: Ruth Wilson.
Stood last year.
UKIP: Noel Jordan.
Stood last year.
Some Kinda Labour: Conor Sheridan.
Stood last year.
Green: Dawn Patterson.
Tory: Alan Dunlop.
Independent: Ricky Best.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 36,000 votes and a quota of 6,000? Thats a low quota.

How the votes distribute between the blocs will be the key.
DUP…..11,000 wont be far away from two quotas. But the distribution will be around 4,000, 4,000 and 3,000.
UUP should be in excess of the quota and Beggs will be well ahead of his running mate. A similar position for Alliance.
TUV will poll a little better and UKIP a little worse than in 2016.
It looks like a case where eliminations of the also-rans…Green, Tory, Labour and Independent will add to totals and then the elimination of middle rankers….SDLP, second Alliance, UKIP and second UUP will leave around seven serious contenders.
When the dust settles, DUP will have two seats, UUP one and Alliance one.
And the fifth seat. TUV wont be far away. But ultimately it is DUP or Sinn Féin.
DUP 2. UUP 1. ALliance 1. Sinn Féin 1.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Assembly Election 2017: East Antrim

  1. Vince says:

    Not sure about this one Fitz. If Alliance balance very well, they could both be ahead of SF and their 2nd runner would be seriously in the mix for that final seat.

  2. I think McMullen is toast also

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s